PART 1 – INSTRUCTIONS TO PROPOSERS AND PROPOSAL CONDITIONS

1.1 About The Nature Conservancy and the project

2.1 Background

The Lamu – Tana Seascape along the northern Kenya coastline, includes diverse and contiguous habitats of mangroves, coral reefs and deep waters of the offshore North Kenya Bank. The 41,000 ha of mangroves in the area is significant for East Africa, represents 66% of Kenya’s canopy cover and includes the rare Heritiera littoralis species. The mangroves and the nutrient rich colder waters support high densities of inshore finfish and crustaceans whilst the deep waters of the offshore North Kenya Bank are a valuable offshore fishery. The coral reef system occurs where the East Africa Coastal and the Somali currents converge and supports rare and endemic corals plus endangered fish species. The coastal communities in the area are largely involved in smallscale fisheries.

To help sustain the unique Lamu and Tana coastal systems, TNC launched the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program in 2013. The Program Phase I and its targets run until 2025. TNC and partners are working with 4 coastal communities at points across 248,000 hectares via 4 community marine conservancies (Kiunga, Pate, Awer and Lower Tana). The Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) has been a key implementing partner to date. The program aim is to promote the conservation of the coastal habitats combined with the improved co-management and governance of priority fisheries and coastal habitats (octopus, lobster, reef fish, mangroves, coral reefs) aimed at generating sustainable livelihoods with enhanced business opportunities for 3000 community fishers in the Lamu-Tana seascape. The program adopts an integrated approach to promote the combination of interventions for sustainable fisheries, livelihoods, coastal ecosystems conservation, and community and gender inclusiveness. Please see Annex 1-5 for details on the theory of change, program sites and the program objectives.

The program strategic approach includes promoting: 1) Small-scale fisheries governance, co-management areas and harvest strategies; 2) Improved restoration and conservation of coral reef, sea turtles and marine mammals; 3) Sustainable livelihoods, gender and youth integration; 4) Improved governance and co-management of mangrove forest and sustainable harvest strategies with community forest associations, forest restoration and blue carbon stock sequestration; and 5) Partnerships, Learning Exchanges and Networks.

Activities focus on community governance capacity and management systems via 23 community Beach co-management units (BMUs) within the 4 community conservancies. The habitat conservation efforts focus on the Pate-Kiunga Reef Restoration Plan for 2 hectares of degraded corals. The protection and restoration of mangroves with improved participatory forest management is supported with an aim of generating additional benefits of carbon sequestration of 4.24 metric tons C/ha/yr. The program’s livelihood interventions include a Fish to Market programs for local fishers, supporting women microfinance programs, and their crab and octopus farming micro-enterprises.

The key program implementing partners include, NRT, World Wildlife Fund (WWF), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and the County Governments in Lamu and Tana River. Partners also include numerous public agencies including, KEMFRI, Kenya Fisheries Service, KWS, Kenya Forest Service, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI); CORDIO; Wildlife Research & Training Institute (WRTI). Program donors include both public and private funders such as the International Climate Initiative (IKI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad), Bezos Earth Fund, and the Global Mangrove Alliance.

2.2 Interventions to be evaluated.

The evaluation will focus on evaluating the performance of the key strategic intervention approaches that make up the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program including:

1. The Small-scale fisheries governance, co-management areas and harvest strategies.
2. Improved restoration and conservation of coral reef, sea turtles and marine mammals.
3. Sustainable livelihoods, gender and youth integration.
4. Improved governance and co-management of mangrove forest conservation and sustainable harvest strategies with community forest associations, forest restoration and blue carbon stock sequestration.
5. Partnerships and Learning Exchanges and Networks; and
6. The Northern Rangeland Trust (NRT) Partnership program objectives (which are largely presented by 1-5 listed above).

2.3 Scope of work

The evaluation scope of works will cover the program period from its inception in 2013, to the start date of this assignment. The scope includes the Program budget invested to date at approx.US$ 10 million and the 6 program intervention areas noted above under 2.2. The geographical scope includes the program sites in Lamu and Tana Delta Counties in Kenya (4 community conservancy areas of Kiunga, Pate, Awer and Lower Tana) with evaluation sample sites drawn from the program-supported community fisheries Management Areas, coral restoration and mangrove sites. A map showing the program area and a list of the program sites are listed in Appendices 1 and 2.

2.4 Purpose and rationale

The program has been operational for over ten years and the TNC Africa management team now wishes to independently evaluate program performance and impact to date to support both accountability and learning. The evidence-based findings and recommendations from the evaluation will be used to learn about TNC’s impact in the project area and to guide TNC’s future investment, strategic planning and programming in the landscape including, a 2-3-year transition plan with our key implementing partner, and the most effective operational modalities going forward. The TNC Africa management team is looking to learn whether to implement change, maintain certain interventions, adjust program scope, what to scale up or down, and/or transition towards the exit strategy etc. TNC is considering all options for the program’s future.

2.5 Intended user(s)

The primary intended users of this evaluation are the TNC Africa Oceans Director, the Managing Director of Global Conservation, the Africa Regional Managing Director, the Africa Conservation Director, the Kenya Country Director, the Portfolio Director, the Africa Fisheries Strategies Manager, the Northern Coast of Kenya Project team, Africa Director of Program Delivery, and the Africa MEL Director. The Final Evaluation report will be presented to TNC.

In addition to TNC (the primary user), the evaluation findings, lessons and recommendations will be shared by TNC with key program partners, community groups and interested parties. For instance, the evaluation lessons may well be useful to NRT to inform its strategic planning. The contractor will conduct feedback and validation sessions to present the key draft evaluative findings and lessons to the community groups and to key program partners.

1. Evaluation objectives and approach

The evaluation will assess the program’s performance against the OECD/DAC evaluation criteria (relevance, coherence, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability) and make recommendations. The objectives of the evaluation are to:

• Assess the relevance, coherence, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability of the program and its progress toward achieving its objectives (evidence-based accountability).
• Deliver evidence-based findings, lessons, and actionable recommendations to help guide TNC’s next phase strategic and transition planning1, and to generate learning for future programming.

To address these objectives, the evaluator is to independently test whether the program theory, logic and key assumptions held true and to assess the achievement of results against the expected program targets. The evaluator is to identify the key influencing factors to program performance, both the enablers and challenges to program achievement of its outcomes. The evaluator will also objectively review the extent to which program implementation was delivered efficiently and effectively by TNC and its key Partners.

The evaluation design is expected to be based on a mixed-method approach with collection and analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data from primary and secondary sources using a robust sampling strategy. Performance will be assessed against program indicators, available baseline data, and via several case study examples. The methodology will include evidence-based, attribution and contribution analysis to explore the relations between activities and outcomes as well as contextual factors to assess the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, coherence, sustainability and impact of the interventions. The evaluation methodology is to adopt a gender-sensitive and equity-focused approach.

The evaluation team may be supported by TNC scientists in the fields of small-scale fisheries and/or conservation economics. The TNC scientists may support the evaluation team with data gathering and analysis where appropriate and feasible. TNC is establishing whether its relevant scientists are available to support the evaluation, this is to be confirmed. If the scientists are available to support some data collection and analysis for the evaluation, their activities will align to the Evaluation Contractor Team Leader’s direction set for the evaluation approach and methodology.

1. Tentative Evaluation questions

To meet the purpose of this evaluation, we are seeking responses to eight tentative evaluation questions. The evaluation is to provide its evidence-based findings for each evaluation question, along with key lessons learned and recommendations for TNC and the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program going forward.

1. Is the overall program design and framework still appropriate?

Consider whether the program’s vision and goals are still relevant to the context (see annex 3-5), and if they align with TNC’s 2030 goals (https://www.nature.org/en-us/what-we-do/our-priorities/). Test whether the program design remains relevant to the needs, capacities and priorities in the landscape and amongst the key stakeholders and partners. Were the right stakeholders targeted? Was the tailoring of the program’s strategic approach via its main implementing partner, the Northern Rangelands Trust (NRT) appropriate? To what extent was the NRT Marine Strategy 2018-2022 relevant (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5af1629f12b13f5ce97ca0b5/t/5ccbfb876e9a7f2c740be7f5/1556872157492/NRT_Marine_Strategy_Final.pdf)? To what extent does the program design include transition and sustainability plans? Based on the evaluative findings, what are the lessons going forward and the key recommendations for the design of future strategies and for a relevant 3-year transition plan?

1. Is the theory of change holding true?

To what extent did the program’s theory, logic and approach hold true? Have the anticipated pathways for change proven to be based on well informed assumptions? Has the program adapted to any changed circumstances? See Annex 4 for the Western Indian Ocean Theory of Change.

1. Is the Seascapes Program compatible with other interventions in the landscape and sectors?

How well aligned is the Seascapes Program to other interventions in the landscape? Does the Seascapes Program have good strategic partnerships, is it harmonized and complementary to other interventions? Was engagement with communities, donors, the wider public, and the Kenyan government effective in supporting the enabling environment for efficient implementation and delivery? What is the stakeholders’ feedback and recommendations going forward? Has the program leveraged additional investment from other funders or agencies to reduce costs and enhance scale and impact? Has the Seascapes Program had any catalytic effects?

1. How efficient was our implementation and our partnership arrangements to deliver and meet program goals?

How efficiently were resources and program inputs used and converted into results? Did we have the right partnership model, leadership, management structure and implementing partners to efficiently deliver the program objectives? Was programming and budgeting well aligned? Was program progress monitoring and reporting robust and sufficiently resourced, and how can monitoring be improved (for mangroves etc.)?

1. Has the program effectively delivered its expected results?

To what extent has the program achieved or is likely to achieve its objectives and targets, including any differential results across stakeholder groups? For instance, to what extent has the program achieved the desired sustainable improvements in the fisheries and community co-management and governance systems leading to improved fisheries and coastal ecosystem benefits? What worked and did not work and why? How effective were the mangrove restoration and harvesting systems, and are the Fish-to-Market, priority fisheries (crab, octopus) and gear exchange interventions leading to sustainable place-based economic opportunities and equitable livelihoods? What were the influencing factors enabling or inhibiting results? What are the lessons? Evaluate and weigh the importance of the achieved/not achieved/expected results when drawing conclusions about overall effectiveness.

1. What is the program’s overall impact?

What is the overall significance of the intervention’s combined effects? What is the scale of impact? Is critical mass achieved for transformational change in this landscape? To what extent has the program contributed to the TNC 2030, TNC Ocean, and TNC Kenya program goals?

1. What is TNC’s current return on investment, the value for money?

Given the TNC and donor investment over the last 10 years, what is the cost-effectiveness of the programs’ different intervention types compared to the benefits achieved (high spend areas include mangrove conservation and restoration, and community capacity building)? To what extent are the program-supported mechanisms still functioning and meeting the standards and the purpose expected?

1. How sustainable are the benefits generated by the program?

The extent to which the effects and benefits generated by the Seascapes Program will continue or are likely to continue independently without program support? How sustainable are the financial, social, environmental, and institutional capacities of the systems and partners to sustain the benefits over time (medium to long term)? To what extent have partnerships and joint initiatives operated efficiently to sustain the community institutions, improved natural resource management systems and conservation efforts? Is there a clear exit and/or Transition Strategy? How effective is TNC’s approach to managing the transition with NRT and other partnerships? What are the lessons and recommendations to enhance sustainability and to inform the next strategy and the transition phase.

1. The Request for proposals

This request for proposals is calling for the assignment to be undertaken by a Team of Experts (not an individual) who may be both international and/or nationally based. The evaluation inception phase may be undertaken remotely, whist the evaluation field work and data gathering will be undertaken in Kenya mainly in the Lamu-Tana seascape, and with meetings at the program office in Mombasa and the TNC Country office in Nairobi.

The budget cap for the contract is set at a gross rate of USD$ 80,000.00 inclusive of taxes and bank transfer costs. This request for proposals asks bidders to determine the applicable taxes, such as Kenya Withholding Tax (set at 5% for domestic bidders; and up to 20% or less for internationally registered bidders) and VAT at 16% (VAT is charged against contractor fees and not against contractor reimbursables). Taxes are deducted from the gross rate. TNC covers up to 4% of the cost of bank transfer fees. All price proposals shall be in USD or Kenya shillings. Please note bank transfer fees may vary per currency.

1. Procedures and logistics

The contract gross budget rate includes the reimbursables, such as the travel costs for the evaluation team (international and local), visas, per diem for the evaluation team plus vehicle drivers, accommodation, and/or costs of supplies. The costs of vehicle and boat hire for the evaluation field trip will be covered by TNC. This request for proposals does not cover any travel or medical insurance policy costs, and evaluation team members are requested to self-insure.

We do not anticipate delays due to visa and admin issues. We encourage applicants to familiarize themselves with the Business visa application process for the United Republic of Kenya and to apply for the visa well in advance and immediately after the signing of the contract.

1. TNC Evaluation Manager

The evaluation is managed by a TNC Evaluation Panel, led by the TNC Africa MEL Director and TNC MEL advisors. The TNC Evaluation Panel is the main point of contact for the contracted Evaluation Team and will assist with on-ground coordination to enable the contracted team to undertake the work.

1. Deliverables

The main deliverables include:

1. One Inception Report – draft and final at Month 1
2. One Evaluation Report – draft and final at Month 3

The deliverables are organized according to the three phases of the assignment.

1. Inception Phase: One Inception Report

• Validation of the Evaluation Questions via consultation with the TNC Evaluation Coordination Panel.
• Review of the program theory of change in consultation with the program and TNC teams.
• Secondary data review.
• Program stakeholder analysis.
• Design of the evaluation methodology and sampling strategy.
• Slide presentation of the draft Inception Report to the Evaluation Panel
• The Final Inception Report (maximum of 30 pages) covering the evaluation design and the evaluation matrix outlining the final set of Evaluation Questions with the data collection and analysis methods. Draft reports edits from TNC team included in final version.

Data Collection Phase:

• Field data gathering, consultation, and interviews.
• Data analysis.
• Community feedback and validation sessions.
• Presentation and validation sessions with the Seascapes program and TNC.

1. Reporting Phase: One Evaluation Report

• Draft Evaluation Report with chapters on the Introduction, Evaluation Findings, Lessons, and Recommendations. Annexes to the report include the ToR, the evaluation methodology, relevant map(s), lists of persons/organizations consulted, literature and documentation consulted, and any other technical annexes.
• Edited Evaluation Report incorporating the TNC feedback and comments.
• Final Evaluation Report in MS Word that is no more than 40 pages plus added annexes and a publishable-quality executive summary of up to 5 pages.
• Free-standing Executive Summary – A short, tightly-drafted, to-the-point summary of no more than 5 pages that clearly indicates the main findings, lessons, and specific recommendations.
• Slide presentation – A 60-minute talk with slides summarizing the results. The target audience for both the presentation and slides is the TNC Africa management and the Seascapes Program team.

2.10 Required competencies

The contractor will present a team of evaluators. There will be a team leader (evaluation expert), sector specialists (oceans, community, small scale fisheries, institutional and governance capacity, and organizational development), an inclusivity expert (gender, youth, and human rights), and a local landscape expert fluent in Swahili.

Mandatory qualifications for the team leader:

• A master’s degree or Ph.D. in a relevant field such as conservation biology, environmental science, anthropology, sociology, or international development.
• At least 6-10 years of proven experience of leading and conducting evaluations of conservation and/or development projects.
• Expertise in evaluative qualitative and quantitative evidence-based methods, including thematic and theory-based analysis, mixed-methods, case studies, OECD DAC Evaluation Criteria, data sample frameworks, triangulation and data quality analysis.
• Experience working with diverse local communities, conservation or natural resource management, preferably in East Africa or similar contexts, with a deep understanding of local social, cultural, and environmental contexts.
• Proficiency in using qualitative data analysis software like NVivo or Atlas.ti
• Fluency in English
• Strong verbal and excellent analytical and report writing skills
• Team leadership skills and ability to work collaboratively with project staff, local communities, and other stakeholders to gather data and insights.

2.11 Duration of assignment

Dates will be agreed for the fieldwork with TNC. TNC expects all the work and the final payment to be completed no later than 4 months after contract signing.

PART 3 – EVALUATION OF PROPOSALS

A technical proposal and a separate price proposal are requested. The technical proposal will be worth 70 points and the price proposal will be worth 30 points. A technical proposal must achieve a minimum score of 50 points to be qualified. Only after the proposal is technically qualified will the price proposal be considered.

Proposal

Points

Technical

70 Points

Price

30 Points

Total

100 Points

The primary and sub-criteria for the technical evaluation are:

Criteria

Points

Number of program evaluations completed in the last 4 years

0-20

Number of international organizations as clients

0-10

Response to the Scope of Work above

Level of detail (0-10 points)

Level of completion (0-10 points)

0-20

Key personnel

General qualifications (team leader 50%/#1 specialist 50%) (0-10 points)

Relevant experience (team leader 50%/#1 specialist 50%) (0-10 points)

0-20

Total

70 points

A technical proposal must achieve a minimum score of 50 points to be qualified. Only after the proposal is technically qualified will the price proposal be considered.

For price proposals, the lowest-priced proposal will receive 30 points and the other proposals receive points based on the percentage of their price compared to the lowest-priced proposal. Price score = price of lowest proposal ÷ price of proposal being evaluated x 30.

The contract will be awarded to the proposal with the highest total score from the technical and price proposals.

Proposers must submit their proposal to TNC no later than 7th April 2025, 17:00 EAT by email to: africa.tenders@tnc.org. The subject heading of the email should be ‘Evaluation of the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program, Kenya by [organizational name].’

1.2 Summary

TNC invites you or your organization to submit technical and price proposals to conduct an evaluation of the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program (“Seascapes”), Kenya. A detailed description of the requirement can be found in Part 2 of this Request for Proposal (RFP). The Full document can be viewed on this link https://tnc.box.com/s/rdc7yimygvymozpspswqy6a3s8xm6ync.

How to Apply:

1.7 Proposal lodgement methods and requirements

Proposers must submit their proposal to TNC no later than 7th April 2025, 17:00 EAT by email to: africa.tenders@tnc.org. The subject heading of the email should be ‘Evaluation of the Northern Kenya Coastal Seascapes Program, Kenya by [organizational name].’ Electronic copies are to be submitted in PDF, MS Word, or MS Excel formats. Proposals must be in English.

A technical proposal and a price proposal are required. The technical and price proposals need to be submitted as separate documents. All price proposals shall be in USD or Kenya shillings.